Interested in UncleWest's interpretation of Barrett's comments {re Rambus}, or that of Tinkershaw, or Tom Warren
One thing mentioned in the article is that INTC is dependent on RMBS until at least 2003. Gotta like that.
But to be brief there is no substitute out there for RDRAM for any of Intel's new chips. DDR is, if you can believe this, possibly still a year away. Tate at the Rambus CC stated that their checks reveal that DDR is still some time off, nothing in the near foreseeable future. No one has put out a commercial DDR product yet (just samples and samples are far different than mass production) plus DDR, if and when it comes out, will have a price premium on it as well, as well as lack of validation and standardization (service Rambus provides).
This said, DDR is having difficulty with sub 1 Ghz chips much less the 2 Ghz range Intel is playing with for next year and much higher going forward. The manual specifies that if there is no substitute technology then don't sweat it. DDR is about as good a substitute for RDRAM (that is if DDR ever makes it commercial) as TDMA or GSM is for CDMA. TDMA and GSM can do the job but at much reduced efficiency and speed + it requires an enormous pin count as speeds increase, a real mess technologically.
In this regard INTC is stuck whether it likes it or not. Gorilla power. There is nothing else that can fire their latest chips on anything but a desktop.
The other aspect of Rambus is their control of the entire DRAM market. If they prevail in these lawsuits (and there is only one credible claim, which does not seem to have sufficient factual backing from the little I've been able to ascertain) RMBS will be the toll taker for the entire DRAM industry. An industry estimated to be worth $100 billion by 2003 or 2004.
In addition to this RMBS gets royalties from companies like INTC and AMD for the controllers on the chips. These royalties are in the 5% range.
Thus, it appears to these eyes, that INTC is becoming more dependent on Rambus than Rambus is on INTC. Of course INTC does not like to see a gorilla popping up in its bailiwick.
So in my mind the Lindy dependency corollary is not invoked.
Tinker
P.S. Not to say that if INTC were to dramatically dump RDRAM now and go to DDR RMBS stock would not plummet, but if RMBS wins the lawsuit, they actually get a higher royalty rate on DDR than on RDRAM.
But please note again that DDR is the equivalent of TDMA (except TDMA that has never been commercially produced) and RDRAM is the equivalent of CDMA in that it is a much more efficient technology which is much more scaleable. For INTC to dump Rambus is playing right into AMD's hands and flaunting innovation in the market. Innovation that INTC is utterly dependent on for each new generation of chips. DDR will not sufficiently scale. |
