Sepracor-Looks very promising Message Board

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Biotech / Medical : Sepracor-Looks very promising

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To: BMcV who wrote (4594)	10/20/2000 9:10:11 AM
From: Biomaven	Read Replies (1) of 10280

Bruce, You really have to loook at each drug in the pipeline separately. Whenever they are changing the dose level substantially there is a small chance that a tox or side effect issue will show up. I put the chance of a typical SEPR ICE failing at around 15%. Analyzing the Prozac failure: 1. There has been much increased focus at the FDA on QT prolongation. This is a heightened risk for all new drugs. 2. The Prozac patent loss was likely a key factor here. Without that, my guess is that Lilly would have soldiered on with the drug. Additionally, having the generic released first raises the bar as to the efficacy gain you need for the ICE, and perhaps this was why they were pushing the dose levels. Although J&J dumped nora, I really think that was for internal portfolio management purposes. Everything we've seen suggests that nora is going to be an excellent drug, and it is wrong to characterize it as any sort of failure. When you are dealing with pharma partners, you are at mercy of their drug portfolio management strategy. Clearly the Prozac loss will hurt financially, particularly in the near term. Be nice if they can come up with some new partnerships to offset the loss. Peter

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