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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates
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To: Apollo who wrote (33403)10/20/2000 9:10:11 AM
From: rel4490  Read Replies (1) of 54805
 
<<<In light of Barrett's statements about Rambus being a mistake for Intel, would you consider Rambus a high return/risk ratio?>>>

Oh how I wish I could accurately estimate risk/reward ratios for stocks. Investing would then be easy; simple formulas would determine my stock allocations. But investing is complicated and every investor must make his own determination of the potential risks and rewards of individual stock picks. Past success does not tell you if you were correct in your analysis; high rewards may be the results of your astute analysis that the market was wrong in its risk assessment, or it may simply be the result of making a very high risk bet that paid off.

GG investing is a wonderful framework for finding candidates to invest in. But even gorilla gamers have different portfolios and different risk tolerances, and reach different conclusions as to the risks and rewards of existing gorillas and potential gorillas. Moreover, Mr. Market makes its own determination of the relative risk/reward ratios and that determination is frequently at odds with GG determination. In fact GG theory is based on the assumption that the market will underestimate the returns of a Gorilla and the duration of its Competitive Advantage Period. QCOM as a company is a better off now than it was 10 months ago, but the stock price is 1/3 of what it was then.

With respect to RMBS, I have always liked the odds of this game. There is no basket of competing companies to buy. There is RMBS or no Gorilla Game. A looming computer architectural bottleneck cries out for a solution; none is in sight except for RDRAM. Is RDRAM the perfect solution? Probably not, but neither was the Microsoft OS the perfect solution. Other solutions will require long lead times and huge capital commitments. High BTE. In the meantime, Intel’s P-4 is coming this quarter and RDRAM still has the best chance of being the favorite memory solution going forward. RMBS’s success in claiming its IP applies to current SDRAM technology is a delightful, unexpected bonus. Yes, this is still a high risk element of the RMBS story, but I feel more and more comfortable with its IP as more DRAM manufactures agree to sign on with RMBS. I expect more to do so this quarter. I am as comfortable with the RMBS reward/risk ratio as any other stock I own.
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