rudedog. the IDC report is not out of line with current Dell projections either for this qtr. or possibly for the year.
HP did come in first place. Dell second place in terms of overall growth. However, witness Dell's number of units worldwide vs. HP, 3800 (Dell) vs 2000 (HP), or NorthAmeria 2508 (Dell) vs 1400(HP). So, HP grew at roughly 35%, but it grew from a substantially smaller base. Dell's PC units grew at roughly 21% - not inconsistent with Dell's previous guidance. Dell's server unit growth, however, was strikingly higher than competitors. So, overall, Dell's growth remains solid and in tact. Despite any negative B.S. that others (Chase?) made try to spin on Dell, Dell remains the unit leader with overall sales growing considerably faster than the market average.
Will the Street view the overall unit shipments as more positive than the PC growth rate itself? If they don't they're charlatans.
Dell continues to grow its business faster than Compaq, Gateway and IBM. How can analyst an say that Gateway's model is the one to NOW to beat when Dell's model continues to produce stronger growth from a much larger base?
Let's say it first. Dell remains number one in total unit shipments worldwide.
If the market and analysts try to put a negative spin on these numbers on Monday, it represent just another crazy interpretation.
You must also remember that these IDC numbers represent the three slowest months of Dell's calender year. The third qtr for Dell is backend loaded, i.e., sales in October are typically 40% stronger than sales in August and September. According to what we know Dell's October sales are keeping pace with these typical projections. It is not so true that you are comparing Dell's three slowest months against Cpq's, GTW's and HP's three slowest. HP and CPQ remain retail models and the slow summer months through direct sales are cushioned by their retail outlets. GTW's summer sales are also cushioned by their new retail ventures.
Dell...possibly Dell should invest in a GTW kiosk in order to average out the drag. It doesn't negate the fact that Dell's slowest reporting period for their model type is always July through Sept. You add in a weak Europe and this compounds the problem.
Nevertheless, through all this, Dell still grew their overall business at 30% greater than GTW, and grew it from a substanially larger base. |
