Mark,
Here are my numbers, feel free to correct...
numbers from:
dslprime.com
SBC during April, May, Jun installed - ~200K modems - Total 399k
SBC during July, August, Sept installed ~125k modems - Est. between 100k-150k modems - Total 500-500k
BA during April, May, Jun installed 71K modems - total 221mil
BA during July, August, Sept installed "Assume 100K - could be high" - Verison strike, GTE merger and Northpoint DSL deal.
I don't have numbers for BT let's assume not many:
"while British Telecom has delayed its DSL service another few months,
to howls from the 100,000 waiting customers." - July 30th
SBC installed 325k modems from April - Sept
BA installed 171k modems from April - Sept
BT hasn't installed many CPE; Westell transport "DSLAM" has 15 million in revenue. BT is getting ready, they need the DSLAM equipment first, then come the CPE's.
From the Dell'Oro report:
biz.yahoo.com
Westell shipped/sold 350k modems during April, May and June. With CPE revenue of ~62million, each modem ran about $177.
Westell shipped/sold ~280k modems during April, May, June with revenue of 49.5mil. $177 * 280K = ~49mil.
Westell has shipped/sold some 630,000 modems. Westell's big 3 {SBC, Verizon, BT} installed 500,000 modems during the last 6 months "April-Sept".
Now let's consider that EFNT is primary at SBC and WSTL is primary at Verizon and not many CPE modems for BT.
I see some ~250,000 Westell modems that still need to be installed. The SBC/Verison/BT ramps will hopefully take this down.
Not long ago MZ's main concern was making sure Westell could manufacture enough modems for his customers. Westell made too many modems in the last 6 months.
We can forget all these numbers and go off the next two quarter projects from Westell:
3Q - ~90mil in revenue; 30-35mil in CPE - ~190k modems - Total of 820,000.
4Q - ~125mil in revenue; I'll assume most of the revenue increase will come from CPE. In 4Q Westell is back selling 60-70mil in CPE modems - 340,000 modems - Total 1.16 million modems for fiscal 2001.
Westell forcast for 2002 - 600-650Mil in revenue. We are talking about 2 million ADSL modems... I wouldn't say ALA and EFNT are the only CPE vendors going forward.
until later.... |
