re: What's your take from here, going forward for price movement?
First, I continue to be very uncertain. In the absence of an earnings warning, I thought 60 was the bottom, and obviously I was wrong.
Second, the stock (and the techs in general), will respond to general economic conditions, and Fed moves. If the Fed doesn't manage to steer between inflation and recession (avoiding both) in 2001, then MSFT will be dead money, at best. Chips and software are an increasing part of the cost of cars, toys, kitchen appliances, etc, (the kind of things people and businesses don't buy during recessions). Semis and software companies are what auto companies were in the 1950s, and railroad companies were in the 1880s. My guess (maybe just wishful thinking) is a soft landing in 2001.
Third, we have had so many warnings about 4thQ profits, margins, and demand, from so many different companies, that MSFT makes a stand-out exception, like SUNW and a (very) few others. Semis, semi-equips, the internuts, and their food-chains are all question marks going forward. Hard to believe that MSFT is immune to the general carnage, but the contrast betweeen Intel and Microsoft's earnings reports (and CCs) is impressive.
The above is a long-winded way of saying I don't have a clue. 3 days ago, I was thinking of doing some selling (including MSFT) for tax-loss reasons. I did nothing, and I'm glad I did. I've made up all my losses, in the last 3 days, simply by sitting on my hands. |
