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Technology Stocks : Rambus (RMBS) - Eagle or Penguin
RMBS 108.58+8.5%3:59 PM EST
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To: r.edwards who wrote (58385)10/20/2000 10:52:51 PM
From: r.edwards  Read Replies (3) of 93625
 
Rambus Get to $500 per share by July 2001?

October 20, 2000 By Jim Rockwell

If the following events occur by July 2001, as I believe most of them will,
(not necessarily in this order.) then in my opinion, it is possible for
Rambus to be $500 per share.

By January 20, 2001
· Earnings for the December quarter are .12 per share (Increased royalties
from new agreements with retroactive SDRAM royalty.)
· Pentium 4 launches successfully.
· Pentium 4 memory benchmarks and streaming video demos are very impressive
with rave reviews.
· No price premium for Rambus memory because of Intel's rebate on P4
· Two more memory manufacturers sign SDRAM /DDR royalty agreements
· Sony Playstation 2 continues to ship in huge volumes in world.
· No DDR PCs shipped yet.

By April 20, 2001
· Earnings for the March quarter are .20 per share (Increased royalties
from Sony Playstation 2 and P4 memory and new agreements with retroactive
SDRAM royalty.)
· Pentium 4 starts to ship in very large volumes (AMD starts losing market
share to Intel.)
· Rambus memory production volume goes way up including smaller die size
penalty 256mb chips.
· Rambus PC800 128MB memory price declines to only $40 more than PC133
SDRAM.
· Still no price premium for Rambus memory because of Intel's rebate on P4.
· Infineon settles with Rambus and agrees to pay royalty on sdram and DDR
memory.
· Hyundai settles and agrees to pay royalty on SDRAM and DDR memory.
· Because of the huge success of the P4; Infineon, Hyundai, and Micron
start to ship Rambus memory.
· All remaining memory manufacturers except Micron sign SDRAM/DDR royalty
agreements with Rambus.
· DDR PC's become available, but because of supply and demand, DDR memory
prices are higher than Rambus memory. (Rambus also gets royalty on DDR.)

By July 20, 2001
· Earnings for the June quarter are .35 per share (Increased royalties from
P4 memory and new agreements with retroactive royalty.)
· Pentium 4 prices come down and it starts to enter the upper end of the
mainstream desktop market.
· Rambus PC800 128MB memory declines to only $30 more than PC133 SDRAM, and
Rambus PC600 is only $10 more than PC133.
· Micron loses lawsuit in Germany and can no longer ship memory to Germany.
· Micron settles and signs SDRAM/DDR royalty agreement with Rambus.
· At least two SDRAM memory controller chip companies sign royalty
agreements with Rambus.
· Rambus announces long list of well-known manufacturers who must pay
royalty to Rambus.
· Microsoft announces that their XBOX will use Rambus memory.
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