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Technology Stocks : Dell Technologies Inc.

DELL 129.94

-6.2%

3:59 PM EST

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To: rudedog who wrote (162292)	10/20/2000 11:29:55 PM
From: Meathead	Read Replies (1) of 176387

Re: Maybe IBM will be "the vendor that drops out.. Actually, for few quarters there in the US, IBM did drop out and was replaced by e-machines. IBM and Gateway have just been flat flat flat in terms of unit growth. But a few more data points. I did a little more crunching and it's evident that HWP is on a very real and sustained tear (granted it's from a smaller base). Maybe it is mostly concentrated in the consumer market like you say... do you know of any way to get a feel for this? The good news is Dell grew units 11.1% sequentially which is very strong and will probably make their revenue target or better to 8.3B. Re: DELL was 18% growth Y/Y, about the same as the industry. That's a 5% drop in W/W growth from last quarter. True. But Dell is being compared to their strongest growth quarter ever which was Q3 of 1999 where they grew units by 414k and 60% YOY. A more meaningful comparison is a 4 quarter rolling average which pits the most recent 4 quarters with the same 4 quarters of the previous year. The results being... Dell=28%, Compaq=7%, HWP=45%. When we do this we see that Dell is still growing at a good multiple of the industry and that's most likely the math Michael Dell is using to support his statements. The 7% number for Compaq is artificially low due to the great channel stuffing fiasco of xmas 98 and would probably be closer to the industry rate if that hadn't happened. MEATHEAD

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