Ciena (CIEN) Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Ciena (CIEN)

CIEN 194.70

+9.2%

Nov 24 4:00 PM EST

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To: A.L. Reagan who wrote (9689)	10/21/2000 9:32:07 AM
From: James Fulop	Read Replies (1) of 12623

>>At what CIEN price, say now through next 12 months, would you be concerned from a valuation standpoint about your investment? Or do you just hold until there's a stumble?<< Until there is a stumble. Which is why doing DD on Ciena is a never ending project with me. >>What is needed is for some of the newer long-haul networks to scale back their (so-far) ambitious expansion plans.<< Unlike some of its start-up competitors, Ciena is in a number of different areas of the optical space, so if indeed there is a "scale back" by some of the carriers in long-haul, newer areas such as metro and switching just might pick up the slack. >>the marginal carriers will be redoing their revenue models, and cutting capex, and then the whole thing begins to slow.<< If the slowdown in capex is parallel with the spending on Ciena's products, I would agree. (Although I still have my doubts about this capex slowdown.) But there is the possibility that within the mix of capex, the higher priority segment that Ciena caters to may actually be increasing while the overall pie decreases. Of course that is only my conjecture.

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