Modestly Off Topic.....how should we invest during world conflict and turmoil?
So I get home from work this AM, and see in the papers that the Israelis and Palestinians continue to hate and kill eachother. I'm more concerned now about the Mideast than at any other time in the last 9 years or so.
As a Boston guy, not-so-well-informed on the fine details of the Mideast, my general sense is that a period of civil war/conflict/disobedience/terrorism may soon take hold, with worldwide repercussions.
Why? Because Arafat is not a great leader, and seems not to have control of the many Arab/Palestinian factions. Because Barak is relatively new, and not well tested, and doesn't enjoy broad Israeli support. Because of the outgoing Presidential leadership in the USA, and the untested incoming Presidential leadership. With no real leadership to pull it all together, and with decades of hate imprinted on Israelis and Palestinians, why should it all come together?
Further, the Arabs may be more ready for war now, given that Peace hasn't worked, and given that roles have been reversed between Palestine and Israel. In the 1960s, it seemed to me as a kid, that the Big bad war-mongering Arabs were constantly trying to beat up on little 'ol Israel, where oppressed people were trying to settle in to a small new homeland. By the mid- 1990s, world opinion may be different. The Palestinians appear to be the oppressed and displaced, and a bigger, more arrogant Israel represents the Establishment. I have images in my head of another conflict not so long ago; with a little imagination, I can see the Palestinians looking like the Viet Cong, and Israelis looking like a US occupation force. I'm reminded of how that one turned out.
I'm not saying who I favor, or wherein is the Truth, just talking about images and opinion. In the 1960s, Palestinians were terrorists who blew up Israeli schoolbuses. Now, Palestinian teenagers throw rocks, and get shot in the head by Israeli soldiers. Very different images. The kill ratio is running about 10:1. It looks pretty lopsided.
It seems to me both sides really hate eachother, and really are spoiling for war. They cannot retreat or avoid eachother, because they work and live on the same land. Without peaceful resolutions and compromise, what other option exists? Without leadership to bring people together, to overcome inbred bias and hatred, how can a resolution ever be achieved?
I hope I am wrong, because if war breaks out, it won't be with stones and rocks. If war breaks out, I think we'll all lose, directly or indirectly. Words like Cole, World Trade Center, Marine barracks in Beirut, oil embargo, nuclear weapons, missing and unaccounted for nuclear materials from the US and former USSR, radicals from all camps, quickly come to mind. It's a bad mix that can potentially have far-reaching implications.
Should war break out, what happens to our investments? We have to be responsible investors, responsible for ourselves and for our families. The point of this post is this: I'm asking people with an informed opinion what the right tact should be. Keep investing in gorillas and kings independent of world events, or horde cash and wait, or what??? What happens to the shiny pebbles, or to the gorillas in waiting, as Rambus may be? What if war breaks out, and is short-lived; worse, what if it is a long drawn out affair?
Recommendations???????
Apollo
(full disclosure: Bias - American; ancestry - Syrian Catholic) |
