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Technology Stocks : copper mountain CMTN
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To: Mark S. who wrote (1128)10/21/2000 11:26:52 AM
From: Harry K. Ahn   of 1226
 
At the current price level of about 11, CMTN is selling for 2.2x year 2001's drastically reduced revenue estimate of 300 mil based on about 60 mil shares outstanding.

Although the multiple looks low, I think it may reflect a fair valuation given the current uncertainty about CMTN's future growth prospects.

In the near term, the only thing that will move this stock IMHO is CMTN's success with selling to ILECs' (analysts would say "improved near term visibility"). One announcement of a major contract with an ILEC and this stock takes off. Otherwise, the stock may bounce around the current level for while.

What I am not sure about is how competitive their products are compared with Alcatels' who seems to have a lock on the ILECs for the DSLAM market. Can anyone comment on why Alcatel is having so much success there? Is it price, quality, distribution?

I am getting ready to invest in this stock, but not until I can get a better sense of how CMTN will be able to compete against the likes of Alcatels'.

Any comments would be appreciated.
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