re: "With what's happening in the global market, we think TSMC probably can't keep its momentum," said analyst Eric Wang
The semi-equip industry, today, is in the same situation as I saw with QCOM for most of this year. That is, the analyst/business press herd is stampeding over a FUD cliff, and all news gets interpreted in the worst possible way. The writer of that article basically ignored everything the people at TSMC told him. The reality (IMO) is unclear, with conflicting signals. In that environment, the slant put on the news, (again, IMO), will control the direction of the stocks. Once the herd has firmly decided on a direction in which to stampede (and they have), it is difficult to stop them. It will take an extended period of all the news (the facts, not the slant) being good, before the semi-equips have a sustained turn-around.
So, I think I've still got time, to watch and wait. If the news stays mixed, the stocks will be in a volatile sideways (at best) pattern for a while. If the news turns uniformly good, it will take a while for the Herd to notice, and alert investors ought to be able to get in, before sentiment changes. And, if the news gets uniformly bad, the sidelines is the place to be. IMO. And I know I am risking missing the turn, and watching from the sidelines. Since I have no idea whether AMAT will be at 15 or 150 in 12 months, I think I'll just stay on the sidelines, for now.
JS@waitingfor30.com |
