re:I thought it (today'd rally) had the signature of a bottom written all over it.
Either that, or a bear rally. It will be clear in retrospect (and only then).
Since the April high at 115, AMAT has had 3 failed rallies:
76 to 105 (38%) in late April
68 to 96 (41%) in late May to June
66 to 88 (33%) in August
So, 40% moves is just normal random volatility, and does not indicate a change in trend.
The current upmove is only 3 days old, and has only gone from 41 to 50 (22% off the bottom). Even if this move lasts a month, and goes to 57 (40% move off the latest intermediate bottom), it could still be just a false rally.
I think we need to wait until it is clear that:
1. their will not be a hard landing in the economy in 2001, and,
2. semi demand is not going to soften, and current cap-ex plans are really going to happen.
Of course, once the above is widely believed, the stocks will have doubled off their bottoms, so I've got to be alert and smart enough to figure this out before everyone else does. I could easily get this wrong, and be watching from the sidelines as the stocks take off. But, my current opinion is that the stocks are as likely to go up as down (next 12 months outlook), given the current market environment, semi news, and sentiment.
JS@waitingfor30inAMAT.com |
