Since these are 'commercial hedgers', is it not possible that their anti-S&P 500 bets are in fact mostly hedging
positions against long holdings somewhere else? Are those S&P 500 puts all they have?
I don't know the specifics of why the 'commercials' hold their positions ...
What I do know is that since I have been studying futures (since June) and taking a futures trading course which I continue to do) ... I have looked at dozens and dozens of futures charts for all types of commodities (indicies, currencies, debt instruments, energies, grains, foods, fibers, meats, and metals) for the last four years ... and I have never seen a situation where the 'commercials' were extremely long or short for a long period of time ... and where the 'small traders' were, at the same time, exactly the opposite ... that the instrument did not fail to follow the 'commercials' in a very large way ...
... in other words, the likelihood of a very major move to the downside, while not imminent ... is very probable.
... by the way, I decided this afternoon to buy an additional March 'put' on the S&P 500, which after I sell my December 'put' ... will give me three March 'puts' ...
Disclaimer: The above is my personal opinion. I recommend that you do not base your investment decisions solely on any one person's views or analysis (including mine). Do your own research and take personal responsibility for your investment decisions.
Ken Wilson |
