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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets!
LRCX 142.62+2.2%Nov 21 9:30 AM EST
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To: Charles R who wrote (8865)10/21/2000 7:06:27 PM
From: Jacob Snyder  Read Replies (1) of 10921
 
Re: Intel pushout:

In previous downturns, there is a tendency to "explain away" the first classic signs that TheCycleIsOver. The usual excuses are:
1. it's company-specific
2. it's sector-specific (just PCs, for instance, not all chip sectors)
3. it's just lumpiness in the channel
4. other constraints.
5. politics

Now, a "labor shortage" is an elastic situation. If the market for the chips you're going to make is red-hot, then you do everything possible to keep to schedule. You pay overtime. You deliberately overstaff, keeping extra workers on the payroll, just in case you need them. You move heaven and earth. Intel knows how to do this. On the other hand, if the market for those chips looks like it might be softening, then maybe you don't push so hard. And blaming it on "labor shortages" is a very plausible excuse. And investors will believe it, until it becomes a pattern, because they want to believe it. No one wants the cycle to be over.

A pushout is a pushout.

Caveat: it's not yet a pattern, as far as I know. But it behooves us to be watching very, very carefully, and notice when it does become a pattern.
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