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Technology Stocks : Audio and Radio on the Internet- NAVR
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To: Jan A. Van Hummel who wrote (26762)10/21/2000 7:07:33 PM
From: Jan A. Van Hummel  Read Replies (2) of 27722
 
Was traveling all of last week. Anyhow, here are my 2 cents.

Earnings are positive.

Given a 10-15 % growth rate total sales for the year would reach between $310 and 320 million for a gross margin between $37 and $40 million.

Operating expenses have declined, but may edge up if sales continue to climb. For the year abt $30-31 million is likely.

Profits before taxes (NAVR has some tax carry-over losses) then about $6 - $9 million or about 23 - 35 cts/share based on 25.6 million shares outstanding.

With a growth of 10-15 % a conservative stock value range would be between $2.50 and $5.00, perhaps a little higher if earnings are produced quarter to quarter.

The buy back (if NAVR does buy back all 5 million shares) will increase earnings per share and put the conservative range more like $3.00 to $6.00.

The Fletcher settlement will stop the erosion of stock value.

With the NETR losses now fully taken, with the Fletcher settlement, and with the buy back program, we will have seen the bottom and the stock should move to the $3 - $6 range, perhaps even a little higher. For that to happen NAVR will have to report a couple of profitable earnings in a row without surprises, and to continue to show decent growth. IMO 5 - 10 % is not good enough, they should be able to do much better, more like 30 to 40 %. The latter would raise the range more to $ 5 - $10 or better.

One caveat
There was a loss in a subsidiary of $363,000 (eSplice?) Let's just hope this won't be another NETR.
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