MDA - Market Direction Analysis Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis

SPY 670.21

-1.1%

Nov 6 4:00 PM EST

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To: HairBall who wrote (61205)	10/22/2000 10:33:29 AM
From: John Madarasz	Read Replies (1) of 99985

Good Morning LG... That VIX chart is interesting. I couldn't help but notice that around each market decline where the VIX readings diverge above the 30.00 level in the last three years, it has never been just a spike up, but rather a rounded top over a two to 3 month period. The selling has been prolonged lately, but with no real bearish sentiment, until just very recently, and for a very short period. VIX back into the mid twenties last Friday. quote.yahoo.com^VIX&d=5d Looking at the SPX, and the corresponding VIX over those last 6 years really gives a good sense of perspective. Thanks for the longer term charts. I understand that others have asserted here that this is a "new era" of trading, and many of the old signals don't apply, ala Bill O'Neil etc. I disagree. Mass human behavior will always follow the same recognizable patterns... I think that your chart shows the probability of more downside in the near term is a distinct possibilty, and we are in the midst of a bear rally. If we are in the beginning of "A new Bull"<ggg> I think a more rounded top in the VIX would be showing itself... I started my morning off by walking down the driveway for the Sunday paper, and found this frontpage headline at the top...above the fold<g> Some get jitters as the stock market teeters Will consumers start settling for George Foreman grills instead of Martha Stewart kitchens? web.philly.com Regards,and have a great day. John

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