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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD)
AMD 214.990.0%Dec 26 9:30 AM EST
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To: jeff_boyd___ who wrote (15460)10/22/2000 1:14:05 PM
From: porn_start878Read Replies (1) of 275872
 
So you expect all off them going to the consumer market? that's not Intel's choice, that's OEM's one and business often has the highest end first, since they pay more.

AMD will make about 3.5-4 millions Athys in Q4'00 and Q1'01 and will sell them without trouble. The problem is rather the Duron, which is not competing against the P4.

If AMD gets the cheap infrastructure in december in sufficient volumes, they will discontinue every Duron under 800 and get a decent ASP for 800-900 Druons. If the infrastructure isn't there, they'll do the same ramp but won't raise ASP by much.

My bet is that we won't see cheap infrastructure before mid Q1 (when chipset makers ALi, Sys, Via, ?Micron? and... AMD will be competing each other) and AMD won't get decent ASP before Duron is raised to 900-1GHz.

If they are wise, they won't sell 900MHz Morgan (128k cache) under 90$ and 1GHz under 140$.

At that moment Intel will be selling celeron-100 from 700-850 and PIII form 866 to 1GHz. Morgan equipped with PC1600 (and maybe even PC133 since the Mustang core could be improved well) should crush PIIIEB and Intel will have a hard time cutting PIII's prices before P4 volume gets in the 5-6 millions.

Max
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