Carl, the reason I am taking much smaller numbers is that I assume about 1% royalties only (on the whole DRAM market) and then add to that another 35% since Tates stated that DRAM ill make only 65% of te total cake. I have read only few of the RMBS patents and few claims, the claims cover actually "memory devices", methods of communications etc. I do not remember the claims covering CPU nor even controllers per se (and I may be wrong). If that is correct, then take Tate's numbers seriously, since CPU's (and possibly controllers) will not be bearing royalties, only the "communication" means. Of course, I may have missed something on that. By the way, for my $4/share I took $40 B as the DRAM market, resulting in $400 MM, plus the 35% of "all others" gets me to $615 MM and taking an average tax rate of 40% gets me back to $370 after taxes, I added another $30 to "round it up" and that gets me $4/share some time in the future. I used a PE of 25 to get to my "fair" price of $100. I think that rational people can disagree on this, and i think that unless INTC makes a serious move to reinstitute its "unwavering" support of RMBS, the company, not just the technology, we are going to go through a period of excess volatility ranging from excess exuberance to excess desperation. Not a place to be just a a "buy and hold" place, particularly if my scenario of a major bear market next year turns out to be right.
Zeev |
