Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets! Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets!

LRCX 142.62

+2.2%

Nov 21 9:30 AM EST

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To: Charles R who wrote (8889)	10/22/2000 2:45:18 PM
From: Jacob Snyder	Read Replies (1) of 10921

re: Is it possible that the semiconductor guys are pushing out capacity plans to go for a mid-cycle correction instead of letting the cycle end? For as long as I've been following this industry (3 cycles), and the previous history I've read about, the semi industry has never displayed an ability to manage the cycle, even approximately. They have a totally consistent pattern of building on upcycles, until they have overbuilt. With lead times lengthening (3 years now, from ground-breaking to full production, in 300mm fabs), this problem is likely to get worse, not better. It's not that they are stupid. Rather, it's a classic problem from Game Theory. Everyone acts in their own self-interest, to the group's detriment. JS@maybeitsdifferentnow.com

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