Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets! Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets!

LRCX 150.70

+5.7%

11:05 AM EST

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To: Gottfried who wrote (8892)	10/22/2000 3:37:36 PM
From: Zeev Hed	Read Replies (1) of 10921

Gottfried, my definition of a "cycle top" is top in the stocks of the leading companies. For the equip sector that would be AMAT and for the chips INTC. Similarly a cycle bottom is a bottom in the shares of leading companies. Of course at the time of these tops and bottoms we never know if these were the top and the bottoms. The big question is if we saw a bottom in the last two weeks. If we did, than these prices should not be breached before new 12 months highs are reached. My opinion (opinion, not "knowledge") is that we have not yet seen the bottom of the cycle (thus my opinion is also that we will not see new 12 months highs in these two before the recent lows are breached). It is my further opinion that we are at the beginning of a bear market rally in the sector, and my "best targets for both are $55 for INTC and $65 for AMAT. My model will "admit defeat", if we close above $58 on INTC and above $68 for AMAT. If that were to happen I would probably have targets like INTC and AMAT at $100 plus. Zeev

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