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To: Bill Harmond who wrote (110906)10/22/2000 6:57:43 PM
From: GST  Read Replies (4) of 164684
 
William "Of course I remember 1973 and 1979. How could it be worse this time, GST?"

Our oil dependence has not improved -- an embargo would have a dramatic effect and would throw us into a sharp and deep recession. Terrorism has not improved -- and as a wild card it now plays a greater role. You do not need an embargo, just blow up some tankers in the straits. There are plenty of terrorist targets. And the terrorists are prepared to give it to us on our home turf if they can pull it off -- remember the incident last year in Seattle? The spread of weapons of mass destruction to a level where they can be used by terrorists or in direct State-to-State conflict has not improved -- quite the opposite. In a direct military confrontation we have at least one country (Israel), with nuclear weapons as an option to be used in a ground war against incoming tanks.

The one area of major improvement is that Russia is not engaged on the other side -- the chances of confrontation leading to world war are now greatly diminished -- a real consolation to be sure.

But is the ME as much or more of a powderkeg than ever -- I think the answer is clearly "yes". Every day there are children with stones in their hands being shot -- every single day. Playing with matches in this way is NOT the way to reduce the risk of escalation. Only a fool would think the risk is minimal IMO. The leaders of the moderate Arab States will face internal political problems if they go soft on Israel if this continues. This is what we are already seeing -- a hardening of positions. Escalation is not in our interests. Yet every day we are seeing signs of escalation.
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