Bush Sprints to Four-Point Lead in Sunday Poll
Sunday, October 22, 2000
Republican George W. Bush broke out of the dead heat presidential race, sprinting to a four-point lead over Democrat Al Gore, a new poll showed Sunday.
The Reuters/MSNBC daily tracking poll released Sunday showed that with just 16 days left before the Nov. 7 election, Bush leads Gore 45 to 41 percent in a survey of 1,206 likely voters polled Thursday through Sunday by pollster John Zogby.
This is the largest Bush lead since the daily survey began on Sept. 29. The poll had a margin of error of plus or minus three points.
The results show Gore's support slipped by three points in one day and suggest that Bush may be tightening his grip in one of the closest presidential races in decades.
With 7 percent of voters remaining undecided, Green Party candidate Ralph Nader polled 5 percent and Reform Party hopeful Pat Buchanan scored just 1 percent.
"Gore has a problem," Zogby said. "In addition to not getting his message through, the difference in this race right now is Ralph Nader."
"If Gore moves to the left with a populist message, he risks losing ground in the vital center. If he moves to the center he will watch Nader's support increase," Zogby said.
Bush is now leading considerably among 18- to 24-year olds, who have been the most volatile sector of the electorate. But the Texan also leads among suburban voters, parents and married voters.
Among voters who say they live "paycheck to paycheck," the two candidates are tied. Gore at one time had a huge lead among this group.
The candidates continue to divide the nation geographically. Gore led Bush on both the East and West coasts, while Bush was ahead in the South and had cracked open a 13-point margin in the Midwest, a key electoral region experts believe will ultimately decide the election.
The poll also showed Bush enjoying greater party support than Gore. Bush has the support of more than 85 percent of Republicans, while Gore is backed by 75 percent of Democrats. The poll showed 13 percent of Democrats are now backing the Texas governor.
With just two weeks of campaigning left, the candidates face a public of which 86 percent said they had made up their mind and were unlikely to change their vote. Forty percent said they had definitely ruled out voting for Bush but 43 percent said that about Gore.
Bush leads among white voters by 51 percent to 36 percent and is taking 35 percent of the Hispanic vote. While Bush leads among men by 14 percentage points, Gore's lead among women is only four points.
In the equally close race for control of the House of Representatives, where Democrats need a net pickup of only seven seats to regain the majority, Republicans have a two-point lead.
Reuters and MSNBC will release a new poll every day until the election.
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