What's with this "rose-colored" view? I'm as alert as the next guy to dislocating possibilities. I just think GST is reckless with his dire predictions.
Any of us can come up with all sorts of possible and plausable nightmare scenarios, both global and domestic. Most of that is mental masterbation. ANYTHING is possible. The problem for an investor is to sort out the likely from the unlikely, and along with last years contentions about a collapse of the dollar, soaring gold, etc, GST is LIKELY wrong about an oil embargo...to the practical point of dismissal. It doesn't take the CIA to tell you that the Saudi's (a US military ally) are a stabilizing influence in this matter, and the Saudis unilaterally dictate the oil equation. If something happens to radically upset political stability in Saudi Arabia, then I'll worry. That could happen some day.
The nation of Israel voted Barak in on the platform of the peace process. The people of Israel have finally lowered their guard enough to recognize the rights of the neighbors they overran in 1967 Six-Day War. Israel has withdrawn from Lebanon, for example, and they have made progressive concessions to the Palestineans.
The Palestineans have a genuine gripe. After all, England basically gave their homeland [back] to Jews after the Holocaust. There are emotional issues of race and religion, and strong nationalism on both sides, but I think the Israelis have given up on the biblical manifest destiny notion.
Plus, the world has moved to the center. Except for a few outlaw nations like Iraq and Lybia, leaders appreciate the merits of peace and stability. To suggest that, with this backdrop, the Arab oil producers will suddenly embargo oil to teach someone a lesson is extreme. That's my point.
My experience with GST tells me that he doesn't appreciate the finer points of technology investing [for example being blind to what's happening and at stake in B2B trade exchanges] and leans toward extreme global views like his dollar collapse scenario last year and raising the spectre of 1973 or 1979.
In today's oil case there are public statements from Arab producers [in recent weeks the most powerful member of the Saudi Royal Family speaking on behalf of the Kingdom] that an oil embargo is not on the table. I can't understand why GST persists about it under the current circumstances.
Some people like to worry and accuse others who don't share their morbid concerns of being rosy-eyed. That's called projection. The preponderance of evidence says that an embargo won't happen. GST must not realize that most OPEC members are part of the US military/industrial complex now.
In the absence of such dislocating event I think time is better spent focusing economic fundamentals. The world muddles through. If someone had used the Cold War or some other powder keg as an excuse not to risk capital he would have made a big mistake. |
