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Technology Stocks : Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN)

AMZN 229.12

-0.2%

Nov 26 3:59 PM EST

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To: Bill Harmond who wrote (110922)	10/22/2000 10:44:55 PM
From: GST	Read Replies (1) of 164684

William: "GST is LIKELY wrong about an oil embargo..." I think you are dead wrong on this. The world we live in reflects a central feature -- the calculation of probabilities. I would never say there is a 100% probability of an "oil embargo". What I do say and have said is that there is an "increased risk" in other words an increased probability of supply problems. And there is nothing to suggest an outright embargo in order is the only possible disruption. Whatever probability you put on a supply disruption of whatever magnitude, only a fool IMO would not recognize that the probability increases if the peace process dies. You deny that the peace process is even in trouble. Everybody else seems to think it is in big trouble. The risks took a turn for the worse when the peace process "died". That is a fact. This has already happened. I am not making a statement about the future -- I am making a statement about the situation that exists right here and now.

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