Hi GST! I think the ME situation has changed much since 73. In the Yom Kippur war Egypt and Syria attacked Israel in order to regain land lost in the 1967 war, not to help the Palestinians. The Arabs were armed with the latest in Soviet weaponry, which had been supplied to them on very favorable terms, and after the war their equipment losses were replaced by the Soviets.
Today most ME countries, including Israel, Egypt, Jordan and Saudi Arabia operate mostly American equipment, which makes their militaries very dependent on the US for spare parts. These would be cut off in the event of an attack on Israel. Let's not overlook the fact that Egypt would also stand to lose about $1bn a year in US military aid.
The countries which don't use US equipment are Libya, Syria and Iraq. Only Syria has a border with Israel. They are mostly dependent on Soviet built equipment which was state of the art 20 or 30 years ago, and they are no match for the modern Israeli military. If they go to war and end up seeing their aircraft and tanks destroyed, there is no Soviet Union around to send them replacements. For these reasons I think a major ME war like 67 or 73 is unlikely today.
As for an oil embargo, most of the Arabian oil goes not to the US but to Asian countries like India, China, SE Asia and Japan. These countries have nothing to do with Israel and are potentially huge future customers for the Arabs if the Arabs show themselves to be reliable suppliers. For this reason I think an oil embargo is unlikely. |
