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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates

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To: Uncle Frank who wrote (33569)	10/23/2000 9:28:31 AM
From: LLCF	Read Replies (3) of 54805

< Are you sure that taking such a bearish stance won't result in the loss of another great opportunity over the next 5 years?> No, <I've been actively managing my account for 5 years, and have heard cautionaries similar to yours many times. > Yes, like the boy who cried wolf there have been many well educated economists and businessmen going public saying similar things with the 'market' quite a bit lower. I simply believe that a rational person would use that as a datapoint of what some reasonable people think the market to be worth, wrong [for the time being] or not. <Macro-demographics and liquidity would seen to suggest otherwise.> These are two 'bull crutches' I would advise one to avoid... the [pig in a python] argument that all the baby boomers must plough into stocks for retirement and therefore the market will go up.... and that the fed's easy money policy will keep the stock market going. The first is simply a modified "greater fool theory" chronicled in all past market bubbles. There was always a reason to forget about prices paid for a stock because there are so many buyers out there or so much cash on the sidelines. I would actually argue the opposite at this point based strictly, and should be treated as 'second hand anecdotal evidence'... what I see is many fiends and aquaintances that have MOVED UP retirement plans, a defacto reduction in their investment horizon dictating the sale of stock, not the purchase of more. <Our primary mission here is to hunt for potential primates, confirm them, and then track their progress towards gorillahood. To a lesser degree we discuss investing strategy and market outlook. I hope you'll considering contributing to both activities.> Awe, common... can't I just 'doom and gloom' here?? Ha ha.. How about this, does anyone have any examples of what they would consider a 'gorilla proxy' that went through a bear market like the 70's?? Might be a good exercise, I'll give it some thought. In the mean time there's this from my Gorilla holding: nytimes.com DAK

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