His point is not that the GSM carriers will eschew WCDMA for CDMA 2000, but that the GSM carriers will not have a WCDMA choice because it never makes it out of the lab.
If this is what Gilder actually believes, it's definitely interesting; but then I'm curious as to what he's seen that's made him think that this is what'll happen. No news that I've seen related to W-CDMA trials has lent credence to the argument that potential problems could be this bad; and I doubt that so many carriers, especially the South Koreans, who have a smooth cdma2000 upgrade should they want to opt for it, would make such major decisions without doing some homework and making sure that they're not buying into pure hype. Yes, I know, these companies can prove to be very stupid at times, but this many companies, with all their technicians and engineers fully capable of testing out the merits of a given technology, making the same (if Gilder's right) boneheaded move all at once? That's very hard to believe.
With regards to DT/Voicestream, I know that if AWE switches to GSM, a lot of DT's incentive for making the buyout goes away. However, my point was merely that DT's so bureaucratic, and they've become so agitated regarding how they were foiled in their attempts to buy out Qwest and Telecom Italia, that this time, I think there's a good chance that they'll stick to their guns even if AWE announces a switch.
Eric |
