For Korea, wCDMA in 3G spectrum is a geo-political play -with no downside.
For LG Telecom and Freetel, it means building out an entire GSM-MAP core without getting a major cash infusion from a foreign operator. Even in SK Telecom's case, DoCoMo won't be giving the money to them for free.
Recall that Korea has no domestic need for new spectrum -and that continued CDMA2000 upgrades are scheduled in existing spectrum.
If the South Korean W-CDMA rollouts, assuming that they happen, are held back until late 2003 so that local manufacturers can get up to speed, then I'd agree that major cdma2000 3x rollouts will take place in existing spectrum. However, if wireless streaming video becomes as popular as I think it has the potential to be provided those pushing it play their cards right, then everyone is going to eventually need new spectrum, regardless of what 3G technology they end up adopting.
However, within the next months, events in China (and 3GPP2) may well rearrange perceptions of 3G Standards dominance - and Korea's present interest in wCDMA as well.
Given the facts that you brought up about the Chinese trying to integrate LAS-CDMA IPR into the 3xMC standard, this situation's definitely worth keeping a close eye on. However, I think that anything short of major cdma2000 rollout commitments on the part of China Mobile (yes I read tryhard's comments, but I'm not holding my breath for now) won't do much to convince the South Koreans to change their minds.
Eric |
