Dear Chuck:
Those people who claimed that AMD and Intel could not get to 1GHz in production quantities thought that. However it took Intel till just recently to begin to get even low production qualities of 1GHz P3s. They may never get 1GHz at normal temp margins (80-90C) til 0.13u. So for P3, they could be taken as correct.
However, the point I was trying to make is that it is very hard to predict 12 months into the future. Did you believe that AMD would have 1GHz Athlons for sale under $270 last October (1999)? That an 800MHz Athlon would sell in the DIY market for $103 (w/o S/H costs)? That Intel would misfire this many times, totally recall a speed grade shipping for 4 weeks because they forgot to test compiling Linux with it, and now admit that the deal with RAMBUS was a mistake?
Things have changed from the prevailing view 12 months ago. To those here who try to predict what happens even six months from now, kudos for trying, and pats on the back for actually succeeding. It is very easy to dismiss and believe that it is easy, except when one tries to. It is just typical that when one actually succeeds, people then trivialize it by saying, "well, it was obvious that ...".
So in this vein, what is your prognostication for what speeds, prices, and quantities P4 and its family, the AMD Horse (Mustang) family, and the AMD Hammer family will be available in the DIY market in October 2001?
Pete |
