Dear Charles:
Re: "Hammer will not be production until Q1 2002 at the earliest. Probably more like mid-2002."
Sledge maybe, but Clawhammer will be out by Q4 2001, if not sooner. IMHO, single core Hammer products will be out before dual core ones.
"I have said for a long time that P4 is likely to get to 2.4G on 0.13 and AMD will struggle to get to 2G. I have no reason to change that at this point. Price wise, high-end of P4 will be priced higher than high-end of Athlon family. Quantities wise P4 will probably ship above 100Ku this Q (assuming no more glitches), 1.5Mu+ in Q1, 3M+ in Q2 and a steep ramp from there on."
1.5Mu+ in Q1 is not doable without an increase in RDRAM output and no DRAM manufacturer wants to do that. Similarly 3M+ in Q2. After that, only the availability of a working DDR-SDRAM chipset and motherboard for the larger pinout (I forget the size of the new P4 pinout) will determine how many P4s ship (ignoring any demand problems)(VIA will not ship a P4 set using current pinout and 3rd party mobo makers will not use it). IMHO, 0.13u copper will be delayed from Intel probably until after Q4 or later. Thus, P4 will not get to 2.4GHz, even 2.0GHz is a stretch.
0.13u copper for AMD is doable now in FAB 30, but they will get to it in production qty by late Q3 or early Q4. 2GHz Mustang on 0.13u is probable given 1.5GHz by Jan on 0.18u. AMD horses will ship in higher qty than P4 throughout year, although Q4 may be close. The willingness of AMD to warranty Kyrotech, will keep the speed crown in AMD's hands in the warranteed x86 clock race but, they may not need this help. By Q4, clock will matter far less than overall performance (too many examples of poorly performing high clocked systems (P4, VIA, Transmeta, etc.)).
Pete |
