I went to a talk recently where an oncologist compared the survival rates in disseminated lung, breast, colon and prostate cancers with what they were twenty years ago. Essentially no change, which is very depressing and indicative of the desperate need for new treatments.
This is of course a very significant area for biotechs. We just lost one pure play (CLTR), and this is a natural area for consolidation. MOGN just today advanced towards a Phase III in pancreatic cancer, joining SUPG which is further advanced in its trials. I doubt if either of these would be in play until we see some results from their trials, though.
I still own some MOGN, but fortunately jettisoned my SUPG a while back (but even then not quite soon enough). Can anyone who has been following the SUPG story provide any sort of explanation of just why it has tanked so badly? Part may be tax-loss selling of course, which might mean it is promising at these levels.
I can't say I'm altogether happy with what MOGN has done here, although I intend to hold my shares. Their Phase III is going to be based on a dosage regimen from their new intermittent dose Phase I rather than on their Phase II dosage pattern. The intermittent dosage form is clearly much better tolerated, but it could be argued they should do another Phase II first. Trade off between risk and time, I guess, and I'm not really in a position to second-guess their decision.
Peter |
