Great post, Dan. FWIW, the main trendline of this bull market is the 1984 linear trendline, last touched in 1994 (a major bull trendline usually starts from its first intermediate reaction - the first couple of years are usually accumulation); that's now at about 5500 on the Dow and 600 or so on the SPX, I think. It's common to need log trendlines to mark the final blow-off phase of a bull market (source: Edwards & Magee), which by definition we've probably been in since Jan. '95. Even on a log basis, that '84 trendline is at 850 SPX.
My best guess is that we go nowhere for years. The question, though, is where is our generation's equivalent of 550 or so on the Dow, a level touched repeatedly from the early 1960s through 1974? Is it 9,500 or 7,500? Anyone's guess, but it sure is fun to speculate. I am surprised that Dow 10,000 and Nasdaq 3000 have turned out to be as strong as they are; can they hold forever? I don't think so, but I wouldn't rule it out, either.
Some historical log charts from StockCharts.com; I think we've broken the 1932 trendline on the Dow:
stockcharts.com
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