John, I concur that Novell could be the next Wang. I maintain that Novell's only chance for survival lies in the arms of a stronger, more agile partner. Novell has blown opportunity after opportunity. Why would they change now?
For what it's worth, Apple hit an all-time low today. And they lost two of their most visible technologists to Microsoft (it made the top of the news in the Wall Street Journal, PC Week, San Jose Mercury News). I've heard that Sun has been poaching the best employees from Novell. Who could blame forward-thinking employees for undertaking a career-saving move before Novell is beaten completely? My view is that Novell and Apple are in the same perceived boat of public opinion. And from an investment perspective, that is what matters.
Scott McNealy has done a superb job for Sun and the shareholders are mighty happy. Wouldn't most people want to work for a company that is expanding, instead of one that is constantly reorganizing, reshuffling, and firing? If you worked for Novell or were a Novell ISV, would you trust Novell management to keep its future promises based on its track record of questionable candor? I know of dead software shops that bet the farm on Novell management’s promises of AppWare.
Everyone can shout that the emperor has no clothes on, but if the emperor genuinely believes he has a fabulous wardrobe to model to the whole world, the comments will likely fall on deaf ears. I believe that Novell is in desperate need of merger with a strong partner. However, it is unlikely that any of my opinions would be reflected in the musty, cob-webbed headquarters of Novell. Despite what the optimists on the other Novell thread think, I have NO confidence in the ability of the current management to change Novell in meaningful, fundamental ways.
Novell can buy back all of the stock it wants, but that won’t change the fundamental problems facing Novell. Again, anyone thinking of investing in Novell should consider the signficant risks. A comparison with Wang is apt. If you had waited until Wang filed Chapter 11, then purchased the stock and waited for them to emerge, you would have done okay. Watch for a Chapter 11 filing from Apple within a year. How much farther behind is Novell?
RM |
