AWARE Message Board - Msg: 14649070

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Technology Stocks : AWARE

AWRE 1.920

-1.0%

Jan 13 3:59 PM EST

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To: Bobo who wrote (1276)	10/24/2000 2:14:47 PM
From: Elroy	of 2404

Gotta be careful on ADI's numbers as a proxy for AWRE's royalty. I'm not talking about ADI's revenue line, I'm talking about ADI's forecast for DSL chip sales. They've upped it each quarter, and it seems pretty safe to assume that this forecast from ADI a good proxy for future AWRE royalty revenue. On the previous conference call AWRE said their own forecasts were based on ADI doing what they said they would do. The extrapolation of contract revenue into meaningful royalty revenue is a dangerous game IMO. Agreed. There is no guarantee a contract engagement will produce a chipset that grabs any market share. But you said that AWRE/ADI are in denial about their competition. They have said the only meaningful competition is from ALA, my source at TXN confirms that ADI and ALA are the only real players, with TXN trying to get in the mix but at the moment lagging. What are AWRE/ADI in denial about? For analog modems, the only real players were MOT and USRX (right, Scrapps!!?). For DSL modems, there is unlikely to be more than 2-4 MAJOR players, and ADI is certainly one of them, and most likely #1. What's to deny?? Elroy

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