Yes, Tim. Though I'm a fan of Apple computers and have used them wherever possible since 1985, I can be as critical as anyone about all the mistakes, missteps, and missed opportunities along the way. Still, depending on whose numbers you use, there is a fiercely loyal worldwide user base of 60-100 million (no small number). And though the differences have narrowed over the past few years, Macs are still the preferred platform for graphics, audio and video.
From an investment standpoint, the stock is fundamentally cheap: no debt, cash of $10/share, investments of about $4/share, and a P/E at or near single digits. Technically, it's another story and the open-mineshaft-drop from the 50's to the teens gruesomely reflects investor sentiment about hopes for an I-Mac homerun with the "Cube."
What may end up saving the day (and investors' butts) is not the "Cube" in particular but three other things: decent holiday sales across the product board, QuickTime, and FireWire. AAPL already has a growing hit on its hands with the last two which are licensed to many other companies.
A fourth but more nebulous area of potential benefit is the ongoing cross-polination with Pixar and Disney (hats off to Jobs for successfully courting this powerful relationship).
Like England, there will always be an Apple. Only time will tell if current investors are shrewdly buying value and long-term growth at a discount or simply burying dead money. I side with the former but would not bet big money on it!
All the above are my opinions and musings only--MK-- |
