Semi Equipment Analysis Message Board

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis

SOXX 289.38

-3.4%

Nov 13 4:00 PM EST

Public Reply Prvt Reply Mark as Last Read File

Previous 10 Next 10 Previous Next

To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (39)	10/24/2000 6:28:13 PM
From: Donald Wennerstrom	Read Replies (2) of 95413

This will be a long post (it will not fit on 1 page). The SEMI data for the 69 month period, starting Jan 95 and ending Sep 00, is presented in tabular form in addition to 3 columns that I have added. The data can be presented in tabular and/or graph form - both techniques have their advantages and disadvantages. As presented in the previous post, the data has 3 positive cycles where backlog was increasing and 2 negative cycles where backlog was decreasing. The first 4 columns is a listing of the data presented by SEMI. Column 5 is the difference between the bookings and the shipments for the month. Column 6 is a "running total" of the backlog assuming that the backlog was zero at that period of time. This is obviously not a realistic assessment so column 7 was created to put a little more realism into the calculation. I made an arbitrary assumption that the remaining backlog in Jan 95 was 6 months using the Jan 95 shipment of 677K as the base. Therefore, 6 times 677K equates to 4,062K as the starting backlog. I think the number used is relatively unimportant, but it prevents a negative backlog from occuring without it. Many conclusions can be put forth by studying the data - I will make a few. 1. The backlog has been increasing for the last 21 months, by far the longest period within the data source. 2. The BtB ratio must come down to a more realistic level in the future. As pointed out in a previous post, during the past 21 months, the backlog has grown by 8B. 3. Compare the BtB of previous Septembers Sep 95 1.02 Sep 96 0.70 Sep 97 1.06 Sep 98 0.57 Sep 99 1.07 Sep 00 1.16 (The market obviously was not happy with the 1.16 - the group of 33 stocks was down 5.5 percent today.) 4. The performance of the sector remains extremely robust - where is the slowdown??<gg> Where is JJ of SSB when we really need him to slow this sector down??<gg> SEMI Data Assume Assume Book Start Start minus Zero 6 mos Jan 95 Month Ship Book Book/Bill Ship Backlog Backlog (M) (M) Ratio (M) (M) (M) JAN95 677 892 1.32 215 FEB 705 995 1.41 290 505 4564 MAR 861 1119 1.30 259 764 4823 APR 961 1180 1.23 220 983 5043 MAY 1025 1140 1.11 115 1098 5158 JUN 1014 1192 1.18 178 1276 5335 JUL 1044 1124 1.08 80 1355 5415 AUG 1054 1102 1.05 48 1403 5463 SEP 1113 1132 1.02 19 1423 5482 OCT 1135 1209 1.07 74 1497 5556 NOV 1223 1295 1.06 72 1569 5628 DEC 1305 1499 1.15 194 1763 5822 JAN96 1257 1607 1.28 350 2113 6172 FEB 1243 1687 1.36 444 2557 6616 MAR 1256 1447 1.15 191 2748 6807 APR 1354 1361 1.01 7 2755 6814 MAY 1366 1187 0.87 -179 2576 6635 JUN 1354 1175 0.87 -179 2397 6456 JUL 1311 992 0.76 -319 2078 6137 AUG 1248 882 0.71 -366 1712 5771 SEP 1119 778 0.70 -341 1371 5430 OCT 1072 833 0.78 -239 1132 5191 NOV 1062 952 0.90 -110 1022 5081 DEC 1069 1078 1.01 9 1031 5090 JAN97 1034 1116 1.08 82 1113 5172 FEB 1029 1101 1.07 72 1185 5244 MAR 1102 1265 1.15 163 1348 5407 APR 1261 1386 1.10 125 1473 5532 MAY 1299 1421 1.09 122 1595 5654 JUN 1375 1474 1.07 99 1694 5753 JUL 1476 1659 1.12 183 1877 5936 AUG 1536 1688 1.10 152 2029 6088 SEP 1672 1774 1.06 102 2131 6190 OCT 1793 1835 1.02 42 2173 6232 NOV 1598 1599 1.00 1 2174 6233 DEC 1559 1550 0.99 -9 2165 6224 JAN98 1458 1363 0.93 -95 2070 6129 FEB 1369 1233 0.90 -136 1934 5993 MAR 1370 1123 0.82 -247 1687 5746 APR 1416 1102 0.78 -314 1373 5432 MAY 1361 1107 0.81 -254 1119 5178 JUN 1266 933 0.74 -333 786 4846 JUL 1112 718 0.65 -394 392 4451 AUG 1012 572 0.56 -440 -49 4011 SEP 846 481 0.57 -364 -413 3647 OCT 852 638 0.75 -214 -627 3432 NOV 932 767 0.82 -164 -792 3268 DEC 921 883 0.96 -38 -829 3230 JAN99 890 997 1.12 107 -722 3337 FEB 845 1029 1.22 184 -539 3521 MAR 944 1257 1.33 313 -225 3834 APR 1099 1405 1.28 306 81 4140 MAY 1217 1514 1.24 298 378 4438 JUN 1288 1561 1.21 272 650 4710 JUL 1375 1531 1.11 156 806 4866 AUG 1441 1565 1.09 124 931 4990 SEP 1413 1511 1.07 98 1028 5088 OCT 1484 1610 1.08 125 1154 5213 NOV 1529 1695 1.11 166 1320 5379 DEC 1598 1908 1.19 310 1629 5689 JAN 00 1604 2227 1.39 624 2253 6313 FEB 1594 2302 1.44 707 2960 7020 MAR 1745 2547 1.46 802 3762 7821 APR 1991 2716 1.36 724 4486 8546 MAY 2158 2778 1.29 621 5107 9166 JUN 2260 2859 1.27 599 5706 9766 JUL 2373 2902 1.22 529 6234 10294 AUG 2436 2987 1.23 551 6786 10845 SEP 2442 2834 1.16 392 7178 11238 OCT NOV DEC

Report TOU Violation

Share This Post

Public Reply Prvt Reply Mark as Last Read File

Previous 10 Next 10 Previous Next