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Technology Stocks : Nortel Networks (NT)

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To: Kenneth E. Phillipps who wrote (7484)10/24/2000 9:41:31 PM
From: telecomguy  Read Replies (3) of 14638
 
What I find amazing is our preoccupation with numbers in the short term. I mean NT grew their business in excess of 40% YóY! And analysts are quibbling over 300 million!

Market is so hyper and short term oriented that when good numbers are posted, everyone goes yahoo and shoot up the stock and then when the stock doesnt exactly meet expectation that the analysts sets, it blows it up.

If anyone understands probability and statistics, they will realize that numbers are at best a rough guide to whats happening. Just as one good quarter should not MAKE a company into a superstar, one slight miss on the top line caused by inventory issue should not make the company into a lemming .... but thats how the market seem to work these days. Of course thats good for us fundamental value hunters because when we see no reason for some stocks to be so badly punished for no rational reason other than gambling, fear mentality that seems to be the Market these days, we can take advantage by buying in at good value.

I used to be strictly buy and hold but now even I can play the incredible dips which seem to occur on a regular basis if the numbers ...which by the way are best guestimates by the beancounters ...dont come out exactly as forecasted.

For example, US govt put out inflation numbers few months back and then recently REVISED it up SUBSTANTIALLY. Had the só called correct hight numbers were published originally, the market may have tanked at least for a few week but when the numbers got adjusted few months later NO ONE SEEM to care! Now is that rational?

I bought NT at 6 so its hard to get too worked up when it bounces around at 50 to 80 as it has recently even if its real money and as Ken said it well ..... had investors bought into every CRASHES that NT had gone through in the past 5 years, they would be a super wealthy person by now.

NT numbers are good and I dont see ANY reason to think they are faltering based on this Q report regardless of what the trigger-fear driven trading mentality may do to NT price tomorrow. Common sense tells me they have the technology for the coming decade and the demand is absolutely there so as long as they continue to win huge contracts WHERE IS THE PROBLEM?
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