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Strategies & Market Trends : 50% Gains Investing

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To: Dale Baker who wrote (22081)	10/25/2000 3:24:45 AM
From: Dale Baker	Read Replies (1) of 118717

ClearStation's most famous trader has NT in his sights for tomorrow: 'kensey' said: Wed Oct 25 00:27:22 2000 Nortel at 48? Boo-ya! i expect Nortel to close tomorrows trade higher than where it opens. at the close of trade tonight on Island, it was 48 1/2. is that a price that will bring out some buyers in this stock? at this point i'm speculating that it will be. who knows? it would be just chump change for some of the big money boys to screw with the PM trade so they could in turn buy it up in quanity in the AM. i also expect AMCC, JDSU, CIEN and PMCS to close higher than where they open for trade. it usually goes something like this : prices open at significantly marked down levels. the affect of this is to get traders up and and at the edge of their chairs looking to see if a buy opportunity presents itself. stocks bounce the opening low. sellers then come in and bring prices back down to near the open and in some cases, exceeding the open. this is the point of gestalt : if traders deem this sell wave weak and lacking conviction, they will step in and buy with aggression. it is impossible to gauge the power behind selling until it occurs. a market that opens at a significant differential from the prior close is something that is difficult to interpret. so it will not until the strength of selling is revealed (by occurring in a way that can be measured) that those considering going long get their signal. this means a definitive window may exist at which to pick up stock. many stocks have just posted up blow out numbers that lent conviction to the notion that the underlying business remains strong. and i don't think a 4 percent miss on the topline of NT that can somewhat be explained will turn out to be a 'time to cash it all in' event. or, the NT miss just wasn't far enough off the mark to nullify blow-out numbers elsewhere. of course, if that sell wave off the initial bounce is crushing and across the boards, i'll step aside. or, if a buy wave doesn't materialize soon after the open, i'll also step aside. what i'm really looking for, and what really composes the case for trading tomorrow from the long side is that buyers step in early such that stocks don't trade significantly lower from the 'artificial' mark (not trade) down and that selling is weak enough for buyers to take control the action. remember : traders LOVE IT when markets open significantly lower than the prior close. their disposition going in is to 'look to be a buyer'. kensey

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