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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD)

AMD 210.42

-0.2%

2:34 PM EST

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To: Paul Engel who wrote (15859)	10/25/2000 4:12:50 AM
From: Dan3	Read Replies (4) of 275872

Re: The ThumperBurn is generating even more steam at 66 watts Yes, but that's for Austin 1.2GHZ parts. Since we've seen that Dresden runs about 20% faster than Austin, the 1.5GHZ Thunderbird looks like it's a done deal and will be moderately high volume for January. 1.2GHZ to 1.3GHZ will be the sweet spot. And it looks like Austin won't be shipping anything under 1GHZ from January 1 on. AMD will have nearly 100% of its capacity at 1GHZ through 1.5GHZ for Q1 of next year. AMD's entry level chips usually sell for around $65. So AMD's 1GHZ Durons will be selling around $65. Given the traditional Intel name recognition, I'd guess Intel will be able to get $100 for a 1GHZ PIII CPU in Q1, less for anything slower than 1GHZ. What percentage of Intel's capacity will be at 1GHZ or higher by the beginning of Q1? If AMD sells its 1GHZ to 1.5GHZ chips at $65 to $500 (generally the range they are in now, but no more $40 K6s) they will have record volume at record ASPs and blowout profits. This is assuming P4 has a very fast successful ramp (limiting 1.5GHZ Athlon to $500 and low volume) and is assuming no mobile Athlon, no Athlon SMP, and no speed increase / power consumption decrease from Mustang. If P4 runs into any problems or AMD gets out a mobile Athlon or AMD gets out an SMP Athlon or AMD ships a Mustang that scales higher and uses less power, then AMD will do considerably better than just record units, record ASPs and blowout earnings. How will Intel be doing in this market? Even in a best case for Intel (fast, smooth P4 ramp) and worst case for AMD (no mobile, no SMP, no Mustang)? Dan

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