As a lurker to this highly intelligent discussion, here is my reaction. First I thought I'd be buying shares of Campbell's Soup as the internet is dead, technology will no longer be hot and we are going back to cans and string to communicate.
Seriously, there are very few shorts, relatively, in NT. So a lot of the chest thumping on other threads is premature or just plain bashing. Although there will be some panic dumping and short selling at the open, those who do will be doing so at the low. The few who were smart enough to play this short, and I commend them, have been spreading the FUD pretty well. The key is whether they will profit from it or will they make the same mistake many of us did, in retrospect, by holding long at the top.
Looking at NT results in a vacuum leaves one astonished at how such a giant can nimbly move and grow with percentage numbers usually attributable to a start-up. At the beginning of the CC, if one looks at comments here at first, it looked like great numbers. Many were predicting the stock would go up. Then the momo started picking up on any possible negative. The rest is history.
So, what does this all mean? Does the market have problems? Are we in a bear market? Is the world collapsing? There are some scenarios that call for the strings and cans and to put one's money under a mattress, or to go buy gold.
Personally, I think there is a lot of money around the world. The world wants to invest in the future. The US (and near US for my Canadian friends lol) giants are still the place to be, the safe haven, the leader. NT is now close to a value growth giant. At almost half its peak it represents a HUGE buying opportunity.
Panic and margin calls - I've got a feeling that many have been like me. I made big money expanded my margin account, got hit, contracted the account and pretty much sit on cash. I don't have to sell NT tomorrow. I won't sell NT tomorrow. I really can't imagine a new short going out and thinking they are going to make a killing selling at 48.
In fact, depending on whether AH turns out to be a real price, I will be loading up. I lucked out by getting in by accident when NT bought PERI. My purchase price is something like 7 1/2 but that is irrelevant as I try to think day to day. No question I should have sold at 89. I should have written calls each month for the past 6 or so. However, that doesn't mean I want to sell at the low.
I've got faith in NT management and I usually bash corporate excesses. He's been streamlining, outsourcing what others would consider fabulous businesses to keep this company growing with numbers that, as I said before, make it look like a start-up.
I wouldn't be surprised to see a buy-back and/or management buy-in. I know it would take big numbers given the o/s and the float but, at this point, it makes sense. JR will defend the currency of the company. It's not just the share price, it's the incentives to employees.
To make a long story short, tomorrow I buy. Why? Do I think at 48 it's more likely to go to 24 or more likely to go to 96 within 6 months? You tell me. Even if the market continues to go down, which I do not think will happen, the giants and the success stories will be the first to move back up. NT will be a leader if not THE leader. They've got the market, the product, the talent and, yes, the management that very few, if any, companies possess. |
