4finger and Thread- From what was said in the earnings CC, I would say that the new shares outstanding of 71 million is almost accurate. As it was clearly said they were going to issue 33 million new shares. So the total shares outstanding, post Arris, Inc., should be in the 73 million range(40+33=73).
And the new LT debt level may be accurate. I see you picked up the figure from Q200 and added it to the new debt they will issue to give cash to Nortel. So your $502 million (177+325) figure may be close.
But your run rate is off. Arris Interactive did $370 million in 1999. In the first half of 2000 they did $250 million. So a 2000 run rate of $500 million is more likely for Arris Interactive. There does not seem to be a problem with voice port orders so I would hope they can do at least $500 million in 2000.
So let's say ANTC will do $1 billion this year and add it to what Arris Interactive may do. You come up with $1.5 billion in 2000 revenues. So the market appears to be valuing a company that is estimated to do $1.5 billion in 2000 revenues with a $876 million(73X12) market cap. Which yields a PSR of .58
And the part that makes this low valuation even more puzzling, is the fact that Arris Interactive makes a heck of a lot more money than Antec ever did. So on the face of it, buying into the new publicly traded Arris, Inc(no stock symbol yet) at $12/share looks attractive to me.
BUT there is ZERO trust in management. Both in execution and in shareholder value. As witnessed by the seven year stock performance(underwater). And from what I've seen in the last couple of years, this makes sense.
See any problems with my figures or reasoning? -MikeM(From Florida)
PS The fact that we are playing around with our Arris, Inc. valuation guesses is even an indication of how badly ANTC bumbled the explanation of the new Arris, Inc. It's not rocket science and yet they say, "Wait two weeks for more details." You don't announce a miss and then follow it up with a mystery. Grrrrr. |
