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Technology Stocks : Nortel Networks (NT)

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To: pat mudge who wrote (7527)	10/25/2000 10:20:50 AM
From: Ian@SI	Read Replies (1) of 14638

Pat, First the whole fiber optics area has attracted Momentum investors. And as we all know, a momentum investor is simply a daytrader with its brain bashed out. ;^) One simply can't expect them to do any research prior to making a buy/sell decision. The headline is all that counts. Yes, John Roth explicitly stated that Optics growth will be 20% from 2nd Q (the current record fiber optics Q) to 4th Q. Given that 2nd Q had a $100M inventory build at customers, 3rd Q had that 100M inventory at customers burnoff; 20% growth in optics between the 2 Q's sounds like an affirmation of the growth to me. BWDIK. And yes, it does sound as if very conservative guidance is still being given. NT got blindsided by customers unexpectedly building their own inventories of Fiber Optics equipment. They've already updated their sales process to gather timely intelligence. It's unlikely this mistake will ever be made again by NT. All the same, the market's response appears to be overdone. My guess that calmer heads would prevail now that all have had a chance to fully examine the facts was flat out wrong. Anyone wishing to buy NT below $50 can do so. Ian

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