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Pastimes : Clown-Free Zone... sorry, no clowns allowed
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To: Sunny Jim who wrote (31195)10/25/2000 2:12:53 PM
From: pater tenebrarum  Read Replies (1) of 436258
 
the estimate for the gold leasing scam short is from Veneroso and Associates, a firm specializing in precious metals markets analysis. the leasing scam short interest is not officially published anywhere - it's an incestuous market, and the players in it keep as much information suppressed as is humanly possible. however, we know for a fact that outstanding gold derivative positions at the major players (CMB, JPM, GS, Deutsche Bk.) have soared since it became necessary to beat the price back down in the wake of the Wash. agreement. via careful observation of a multitude of details, one can only arrive at the conclusion that heaven and earth were moved to keep the carry trade going. after all, the bullion banks are the counterparties to the producer hedges too - if a producer like e.g. ASL goes to the wall in a gold rally (imagine that...it proves how utterly perverse this game has become - producers biting the dust on a price rise in their product!), it could imperil the solvency of its counterparties too.
one has to keep in mind though that all carry trades are eventually doomed anyway, as the positioning of players in the market gets ever more lop-sided. it's a bearish bubble, so to speak. so far they were continually bailed out by the CB's...but what if that were to change? what if China buys say 600 tons? game over if that happens.
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