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Politics : Electoral College 2000 - Ahead of the Curve
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To: Nichols who wrote (89)10/25/2000 4:53:26 PM
From: Cisco  Read Replies (2) of 6710
 
You are correct in saying that I hope that poll is correct!<g>

However, I have place the polls this year into one of three groups.

CBS and MSNBC seem to track close together along with ABC which seems to make a little wider swings.

Newsweek and CNN has been all over the place making double digits changes in less than a week.

Portrait of America and Voter.com Battleground seem to track close together.

I don't trust Newsweek or CNN/USA Today/Gallup at all because of the large swings.

CBS, NSMBC, and ABC I believe are weighted toward a moderate turn out on November 7th. For example CBS states that their tracking poll conducted October 18-21, 2000, was from among a nationwide random sample of 1,279 adults interviewed by telephone. The sample includes 1,010 registered voters, and a proportionately weighted probable electorate of 595 likely voters (825 unweighted).

If you remember these organizations were also predicting record number of people watching the debates because of the closeness of the race. However, the viewers turned out to be low!

That leaves the POA and Battleground polls of which the POA has predicted a low turn out this election. Add this to the facts that POA was also the most actuate in the primary this year and that historically in the last several elections most polls have under weighted the Republican vote.

Therefore, I believe the POA is the best predictor of this election and I use the Battleground poll as check against it.

Does that make any sense?
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