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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis
SOXX 289.38-3.4%4:00 PM EST
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To: SpecialK who wrote (42)10/25/2000 8:19:22 PM
From: Donald Wennerstrom  Read Replies (1) of 95411
 
Another comparison of the Book minus Billings data. This is
shown in the table below. This allows the comparison, and
trend, on a calendar basis. The totals for each calendar
year can also be compared. In 1998, all months had a
negative number, however, the bookings number was a minimum
of 481M in Sept and rose to 638M in October. As we all
know now, the semi equips bottomed on 10/8/98 and the
following day "took off" for the wild blue yonder. On
12/31/00, just 12 weeks later, the group of 33 stocks was up
88 percent and 15 of the 33 were up over 100 percent. I
digress, however, from the table below. While it is true
the Book minus Bill data is decreasing for 2000, the same
thing happened in 1999. The trend turned in October and
continued up for the remainder of 1999 and on into 2000.
Will the same thing happen this year??


Bookings Minus Shipments
YR YR YR YR YR YR
Month 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000
JAN 215 350 82 -95 107 624
FEB 290 444 72 -136 184 707
MAR 259 191 163 -247 313 802
APR 220 7 125 -314 306 724
MAY 115 -179 122 -254 298 621
JUN 178 -179 99 -333 272 599
JUL 80 -319 183 -394 156 529
AUG 48 -366 152 -440 124 551
SEP 19 -341 102 -364 98 392
OCT 74 -239 42 -214 125
NOV 72 -110 1 -164 166
DEC 194 9 -9 -38 310
TOTAL 1763 -732 1134 -2994 2458 5549
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