CY and Fair Disclosure (FD)
These been more grousing about FD by analysts than there's been with politicians about Social Security. They say it will hurt the market. Yea, right. We know information is the most valuable of currencies and they want to maintain control. Some analysts were so used to being spoon fed, they don't have a clue how to play a level field. Their world may be falling apart, but, for the individual investor, ours is just starting.
In every profession there are those who produce valuable results and there are those who don't. You will also find there are those who work hard and there are those who don't. Even more importantly, there are those who provide honest representations and those who don't. There are analysts, institutional investors and companies who fit into the top one percent of those who "do." We probably will never hear the least bit of negative position from this group. At the end of the day, I suspect it will be those who cry the loudest that are most likely from the groups that "don't."
Smart companies want to be open and be valued honestly. CY's CEO, TJ Rogers, even wrote an essay on the best way to trade CY. He sent this essay telling at exactly what P:S ratio he felt his company was over valued to all stockholders of record when mailing his next quarterly report. It was based on the time when CY was a SRAM commodity house and is not applicable today.
In this same spirit of openness, J. Daniel (Dan) McCraine initiated The Cypress Forum where investors can write and publicly ask questions. Dan personally provides all responses. Dan has been a VP (mostly world wide Sales and Marketing, but more recently, Business Development) since the early 1990's. He's known for putting in far more hours a day than most. However, he took it upon himself to establish a open "Fair" conduit of information for any interested party.
Dan recently committed to add guidance as a topic to Forum. He's already followed through and provided us with a picture of what we should reasonably expect through next year. <em>These comments are subject to the rules of Forward Looking Statements. You can read more about what this means on the CY web site.</em> But for now, please take a minute and read the following posts taken from the CY Forum. I think you will understand why I like this company.
Best Regards, pmcw
From CY's Forum:
Hi Dan,
Is it possible for the changes to previous guidance on revs, eps, gross margins,R&D margins, SGA margins and tax rates for Q400 and FY01 be posted on this forum.
Thank you in advance and congratulations on yet another great quarter.
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From: Dan McCranie
Time: Thu Oct 19 2000 09:09
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Thanks for your posting.
1) Absolutely. In the future, I want to make all guidance changes immediately accessible on this site. I want to have the information on a separate section on the Investor Forum, and I've asked the Web guy to do that. If we can't come up quickly with a separate site....I'll post the information in this Q/A. I want to have guidance up by end of week.
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Subject: Reference to CY Guidance
Time: Tue Oct 24 2000 16:12
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Dan,
There was a reference today to negative guidance from CY at
investorlinks.com
Any truth to it?
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From: Dan McCranie
Time: Tue Oct 24 2000 16:57
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Thanks for your posting.
1) I read the piece to which you referred. The writer, at least with respect to Cypress, had his facts wrong. Cypress has not given negative guidance at all. Perhaps he meant to say National Semiconductor. Nevertheless, we have not and are not guiding lower. You can retrieve our latest guidance on this site by going to the newest topic section, where I ask and answer my own questions in order to provide the public with late-breaking, supplemental information regarding the company.
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Subject: What is our guidance for Q4 2000 as of 10/24/2000?
From: Dan McCranie
Time: Tue Oct 24 2000 16:26
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The company gave the following guidance for the fourth quarter of 2000 at the October 17th earnings conference and subsequent discussions on that date with analysts and investors:
- Sequential revenue growth in the 10%-12% range
- Gross Margins up sequentially 100 basis points
- R&D expenses in the 12.5% - 13% range
- S&G&A expenses in the 11.5% - 12% range
- Net Interest Income in the $9M -$10M range
- Tax Rate remains at 22% for Q4 2000
- Fully diluted share count estimated at 155 Mil
Analysts constructed financial models around these parameters and issued Q4 2000 estimates as follows:
- Revenue for Q4 2000 at $394 Million, mean.
- EBG for Q4 2000 at $0.76, mean.
The company currently considers these means as reasonable expectations.
The company did not give specific guidance for 2001. However, we currently consider the following Analysts estimates as a reasonable expectation for 2001 performance:
- CY2001 Revenue $1.685B - $1.82B, mean of $1.76 B
- CY 2001 EBG $2.74 - $3.20 per share, mean of $3.02
Micropower SRAM sales to Cellular Phone Applications were as follows:
- Q1 2000: $29.7 Million
- Q2 2000: $43.2 Million
- Q3 2000: $63.1 Million
- Q4 2000 (projections): $75 Million Note: this forecast as of 10/24/2000. |
