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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD)
AMD 221.450.0%3:59 PM EST
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To: kash johal who wrote (16034)10/26/2000 2:13:11 AM
From: Joe NYCRead Replies (2) of 275872
 
Kash,

Thanks for the explanation.

Given what you wrote, the 2 speed grades Intel is going to offer, and their proximity are a little puzzling.

It is quite likely that yield mid point is well above 1.5Ghz for PIV. The reasoning is that it would be extremely unlikely to have a +/- of 100Mhz on a 1.5Ghz part.

I would expect at least +/- of 200Mhz even with decent process control.

I think percentages may be a better way to represent the distribution (I know there is the whole statistical terminology, but it's been years from my college days).

Anyway, there was a rumor that Dresden produces yields chips in range of 900 MHz to 1.2 GHz. From this, the center of the distribution would be 1,050 +/- 14.2%.

This implies a yield range of 1.4Ghz to 1.8Ghz assuming that intel isn't gonna throw a bunch of PIV parts away.

This would imply 1.6 GHz center of distribution, and 1.4 to 1.8 would fit approximately +/- 14%, but under this scenario, Intel would have as many 1.8 GHz chips as 1.4 GHz chips (in absence of down-binning).

Given the recent history, how do you explain not launching 1.8, or at least 1.7 GHz chip at introduction? It seems completely out of character of Intel management.

My gut feeling is that the initial sweet spot is below 1.5 GHz. There is a good reason for not releasing 1.2 and 1.3 GHz parts (because they would get trashed by Piii and Athlon), but there is no reason whatsoever for not releasing 1.6 and 1.7 GHz parts (if those parts were available)

Joe
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