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Strategies & Market Trends : Ultra OTC Fund - UOPIX

UOPIX 142.92

+1.2%

Nov 25 4:00 PM EST

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To: James F. Hopkins who wrote (766)	10/26/2000 8:44:20 AM
From: OldAIMGuy	Read Replies (1) of 2063

Hi JFH, It's exactly that relationship that I exploit in my Speculation index. Yes, multiplying by 66% is quite a bit different than dividing by it! I don't have the numbers in front of me, but this last week's Value Line info showed roughly a 40% gain to get on the Good Boy's list and about 55% loss to end up on the Bad Boy's list. So, the gainers are close to losing out to the losers. If you can believe history, this is the beginning of a "good sign" as it means we're finally flushing speculation from the market. Although my Speculation component is still bearish, it's dropped tremendously in the last two weeks. I'd guess by next week we'll be back to the neutral area. The entire history of that database is available now (1982 to present) at aim-users.com under the Speculation line. It contains four data points from Page 33 of Value Line's index section called "Best and Worst Performers - last 13 weeks." Years ago I noticed the correlation between market risk and the percentage gains and losses shown by these 82 stocks listed. Since I'm traditionally lazy, I chose to take the top and bottom values of each list as the four datapoints for my index. I add them all up (two plus's and two minus's) to get a total value. When that value is very high (above 100) it means that there's plenty of speculation. When it's actually a negative number (rare) it means that speculation is almost nonexistant and is very bullish for the next three months. Take a look at November 1987 as an example of an extreme Bullish signal. There weren't even 41 total stocks in Value Line that were showing positive values over a 13 week period! Hope you enjoy that data. Best regards, Tom

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