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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates

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To: John Stichnoth who wrote (33819)	10/26/2000 12:01:42 PM
From: mtnlady	Read Replies (1) of 54805

I do believe fiber optics, at this point in time, is a royalty game. I also believe that NT and JDSU have met the qualifications to be king in each of their sectors (i.e. 2x lead over their competitors). Can that king be displaced? Sure. But fiber optics has high barriers to entry and they have done a pretty good job of buying up the competition (especially JDSU!) so it will be hard for any company to mount a serious attack. NT is more at risk than JDSU as it doesn't have the market share in it's segment that JDSU has in theirs. And, as UF points out, NT is not a pure play, but then neither is CSCO in any of the markets it controls (because she is in so many markets - like NT). That is a blessing in some ways as well. On another note. Everyone was saying storage was the last segment to get whacked and it is right now. However.. CRM/Siebel has, up to this point, remained relatively unscathed. We still haven't hit the lows we hit last dip while NTAP has far surpassed theirs. What that means, if anything, I do not know. Maybe SEBL isn't on enough radar screens yet to get noticed (and attacked). Or.. we could have a new market leader in the making? I can't tell.

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